The electricity market in transition
Electricity prices are more volatile than ever
and the trend is only rising
Since 2020, price fluctuations in the Swedish electricity market have multiplied. With increased electrification, more renewables and geopolitical uncertainty, everything points toward volatility continuing to rise.
Spot price development 2015–2026
Monthly average spot price per bidding zone. Note the dramatic increase and volatility from 2021 onwards.
Monthly averages per bidding zone.
Five years that changed the electricity market
Pandemic effect: electricity prices halved
In Q2 2020, the SE3 spot price averaged 8 öre/kWh – a 62% drop compared to the same period in 2019. Industrial electricity consumption fell by 8% and many companies signed fixed-price contracts at historically low levels.
Gas prices 5× higher – electricity followed
European natural gas prices surged from 15 to 80 EUR/MWh (+430%). In SE4, the spot price hit 250 öre/kWh in December, a 340% increase vs. the 2020 average. Wind power output dropped 18% in Q4.
Energy crisis: peaks above 700 öre/kWh
In August 2022, the SE4 spot price peaked at 747 öre/kWh – 93× higher than the 2020 low. The SE3 full-year average was 156 öre/kWh, while SE1 and SE2 averaged 55 öre/kWh. The north-south price gap was 183%.
Prices down 54% but volatility persisted
The SE3 average fell to 72 öre/kWh (−54% vs. 2022), but daily swings of 50–100 öre were common. The SE1 vs. SE4 gap reached 320% during individual weeks. Hours with negative prices increased by 40%.
Renewables drive 2–3 price swings per day
With 35% wind power in the 2024 energy mix, we see on average 2–3 price swings >30% per day. In January 2025, the SE3 price varied between 12 and 210 öre/kWh within a single day. Companies without active procurement strategies risk 15–25% higher electricity costs than necessary.
Why volatility will continue to increase
Several structural factors point toward an electricity market with even greater price swings ahead.
More renewables, more variation
As wind and solar power make up an ever-larger share of the energy mix, production becomes weather-dependent — and prices swing faster.
Electrification increases demand
Transport, industry and heating are being electrified at a rapid pace. Increased demand strains the system and amplifies price peaks.
Geopolitical uncertainty
Europe's energy markets are interconnected. Conflicts, sanctions and political decisions affect Swedish electricity prices directly.
Bidding zone differences
Limited transmission capacity causes electricity prices to vary significantly between northern and southern Sweden — a trend that is intensifying.
The electricity market in numbers
Key figures that illustrate the transformation.
SE4 price increase in 2022 compared to 2020
Larger price gap between SE1 and SE4
Of Sweden's electricity from renewables in 2024
Higher volatility compared to 2019
Outlook towards 2030
According to Svenska kraftnät's market analysis, electricity prices are expected to rise across Sweden — with the largest changes in the north.
Forecast average price (€/MWh)
Source: Svenska kraftnät market analysis 2025.
Northern prices nearly double
SE1 is expected to go from ~25 to ~45 €/MWh and SE2 from ~24 to ~45 €/MWh by 2030 — nearly doubling due to reduced electricity surpluses.
Industrial investments in the north
Large-scale projects like Stegra and SSAB are significantly increasing electricity demand in northern Sweden, reducing surpluses and driving prices up.
More extreme hours
Svenska kraftnät forecasts more hours with both very high and very low prices. Volatility increases across all bidding zones, except SE2.